Coronavirus

Since the government won’t tell us the methodology behind the forecasts for coronavirus I’ve used a simple Gaussian distribution to estimate the number of people infected and the percentage of the population based on a peak in 12 weeks and a starting number of 10,000 as stated in the PMs broadcast on 12th March 2020. I wanted to have some idea of the probability of picking up the virus during a visit to hospital for chemo. The government states it will protect vulnerable people. How exactly? As the probability of picking up the virus in hospital increases paying for chemo at home is my survival strategy.